Elections, polls, and the working class (Part I)
As of right now, the presidential election is “in the wire”. It’s not a pretty spot to be in, figuring out the future now is bleak. But there exists a certain aspect to all of this, that brings about healthy optimism in what Biden promised. “Nothing will fundamentally change”. And whatever the result is, nothing has fundamentally changed. The republicans have the senate, and the house is pretty much Democrat. Presidential elections, however, are in particular doubt. Stemming precisely from a mutual distrust of the electorate and the political elite. Be it opinions of whatever party subscription.
In all of this, the biggest enemy of the working class political landscape has made a comeback. The polls.
A lot of things have been said, predictions that have fell flat on their faces. Political polls are almost like that doomsday prophet in streetcorners. And just like the dystopian backdrop that is the Covid-era world we found ourselves in, the doomsday callers are right, for the wrong reasons. The polls strongly supported Biden, that much is a fact. And while it does seem he will win, but it’s not as easy going as they called it. Was there a bug in the algorithm, or is the whole code just wrong?
The categories were so skewed, between college-educated and non-college-educated demographics, almost in doublespeak. They couldn’t bring themselves to say white-collared or blue collared WORKING CLASS. So yes, some of them voted for Trump and or sat this one out. When’s rent due in a few days and the fridge is empty, and you sold your car and were hoping and praying for a stimulus the democrats wanted to play a political gambit. It was obvious that the stimulus helped Trump in this election among the working class. And now the cards are on the table, and the stakes were raised. The stimulus, instead of being dragged back-and-forth in the senate, should have been passed and that would’ve considerably had the working class in Biden’s favor. Especially the Industrial Mid-West voters. The one Biden was riding on and hoping to win back from Trump.
Here is where even our Ivy-league Armani-clad forces of upper-classes get stumped. People can lie, or can simply say one thing but vote the other. Or frankly, not vote at all. There is no algorithmic rationalism to this. But pure sociological rationalism. This need to predict and classify, a prime habit of late-stage capitalism, of methodological analysis, is dying and the pollsters know this. “Key Demographic Changes,” they said. “Suburban Women,” they said. If the Biden administration wants to build continued support it needs to simply stick to the meat-and-potatoes of all working-class politics. Economic reforms. Massive, sweeping economic reforms. Stimulus cheque saw Trump’s popularity rise. That’s what working-class people actually cared about.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/mar/20/trump-approval-jumps-4-amid-growing-confidence-his/
Also, not all college-educated folks are suburban middle-class. That basically needs to be said to some of these pollsters. Actually, through the cycle of indentured servitude, what call student loan-debt, most college-educated people under a certain age are more likely to come out as a working-class demographic.
https://hechingerreport.org/when-a-college-degree-is-no-longer-a-ticket-to-the-middle-class/
Now, most of them did. But the numbers are shrinking and have been for a while. A fundamental shift is about to happen if the transition of power from the previous administration to this one is peaceful. The faults are already appearing. And a working-class case is about to be made. Ohio showed that even union workers find Trump to appeal more to them than Biden. That’s something to cover next time.
